Mixed progress on tariffs: EU–US hardball vs. UK–US deal limbo

Amid rising US-EU trade tensions, the EU continues to resist Trump-era tariff escalations on steel, aluminium, and autos, choosing a calibrated “cool” strategy. Despite threats of 50% “reciprocal” tariffs should talks stall by early July, Brussels is pushing for balanced “zero-for-zero” industrial tariff offers, engaging with the US while holding the line.

However, a Reuters report notes surging EU steel imports, due partly to diverted US-bound volumes, leading Brussels to consider new import surveillance and safeguard duties. With consumption trending down, EU policymakers are considering a revamped protection regime by summer.

Meanwhile, across the Channel, the UK–US Economic Prosperity Deal remains in limbo. Despite May’s Oval Office announcement promising dropped tariffs on British car and steel exports, businesses still face 25% duties on steel and 10% on cars, raising concerns over the timeline and details. British exporters report being “pummelled” as negotiation drags on, with potential retroactive tariff repayments unclear.

Implications:

• EU trading firms should prepare for possible short-term duties if the US intensifies tariffs. Robust customs monitoring and supply-chain adjustments may be necessary.

  
  

• UK exporters must budget for interim US tariffs and seek clarity on eventual reimbursement eligibility. Strategic planning around the end-of-July implementation window is critical.

  
  

Trade actors across the region should be agile as the US-UK and the US–EU negotiations approach pivotal deadlines.