Trade Wars and Global Shifts: How China’s Tariff Response to The USA Could Redefine Global Trade

The US-China trade war has intensified, with the US imposing a 104% tariff on Chinese imports as of 9th April and Beijing retaliating with a 34% levy on American goods. But while headlines focus on economic brinkmanship, a closer look reveals a puzzling aspect of the US strategy: its seemingly indiscriminate approach to tariffs.

Take Madagascar, for example—a country that produces over 80% of the world’s natural vanilla. US tariffs on goods from Madagascar and other emerging economies overlook the reality that many of these markets supply irreplaceable products. Americans will continue buying vanilla regardless of price or reluctantly switch to synthetic substitutes. Such blanket tariffs ignore trade dependencies that can’t simply be reshuffled, raising consumer prices without strategic gain.

Some argue these across-the-board tariffs are designed to close China’s offshoring loophole—preventing Chinese firms from routing exports through third countries like Mexico. But in doing so, the US risks collateral damage to neutral nations and trade partners, weakening trust and accelerating global trade fragmentation.

This creates an opening for China. With US relations fraying across multiple regions, Chinese exporters are seeking to step in and strengthen ties with underserved or alienated markets. Countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America—eager for infrastructure, investment, and trade—may now turn to Beijing. However, a surge in Chinese exports to non-US markets could trigger anti-dumping measures, particularly in the EU.

Ultimately, China’s challenge isn’t just finding new buyers—it’s managing political optics while the US stumbles. In a fractured trade environment, success will depend not just on price competitiveness but on diplomacy, soft power, and the ability to offer stability where the US offers volatility. These quiet shifts in trade alignments could define the next chapter of globalisation—less about rivalry and more about realignment.